Last time I reported on the predictions I made about a year ago concerning electronic products and services that would be developed during 2008. As we begin another year I am going to go out on a limb again and put in writing my 2009 predictions. Perhaps with some fresh batteries installed in my LED powered crystal ball, I’ll get more right than wrong.
Much to my consternation as a manager of a broadcast TV station, I don’t see the upcoming analog TV broadcasting shut down as going smoothly. For sure, the majority who are using cable or satellite services on February 17th will find that the event will be a non-event. Nevertheless, there are still many people who receive TV over-the-air using an antenna who are looking at this change as a sort of Y2K non-event. In other words they don’t need to worry about it. When they wake up on Wednesday morning, February 18th, and “Today Show” is not there they may feel differently. Look for the days and weeks following the cut off to be a great time to be in the antenna and digital set top TV converter business. Seriously, if you know someone who may be unaware of what they need to do - perhaps the elderly lady at church or the nice old man down the street - ask if they need help getting a converter.
Big is not always better. Look for electronic products to continue to shrink in size. Nanotechnology will be a hot area during 2009. The ability of engineers and designers to pack into very small packages a host of applications and machines is nothing short of awesome. Especially in medicine, there will be introduced a whole generation of small machines designed to be implanted in the body to perform some task of diagnosis. This miniaturization will also allow mobile phones and mp3 audio devices to get smaller with storage capacities ballooning.
Speaking of storage. Look for the cost of all digital storage to continue to go down. Once only the province of data centers at P&G or GE, disk drives measured in terabytes will be available in stores in the $100 price range.
GPS technology will continue to be integrated into all sorts of mobile devices. Keeping taps on the toddler in the park, the teen at the mall or Fido in the back yard will continue to be easier with small homing devices. Look for more mobile phone networks to adopt a clone of the iPhone tracking software that allows iPhone users to see where friends and colleagues are located at any given time. Yes, you can turn it off.
Mobile video will also get a push this year. As broadcasters finish the conversion to all digital transmission, some will begin to use a portion of the signal to send video programming to mobile and hand held devices. The technology has been in test mode for about a year and will be rolled out in some 20 markets nationwide during 2009. The adoption by consumers of this technology will be based on how well broadcasters can fashion programming that is appropriate for the small hand held screen. Also, I see the adoption of this technology as geographically dependant. For example, in New York or other cities that have the majority of commuters using public transportation, the ability to watch a news program while sitting on a bus or train en route to or from work would most likely be a viable service. I think the jury is still out for other applications and the willingness of consumers to pay or advertisers to embrace.
One of the outside influences that may slow down the distribution of these and other products and services during the coming year is the flagging world economy. Already we have the major manufacturers like Sony, Samsung and LG announcing cuts in exports to the US and other major markets. The “gee whiz” products will most likely not get the attention of a consumer base concerned about mortgage and car payments.
In 12 months we’ll see how I did. Happy New Year!
Showing posts with label mobile video. Show all posts
Showing posts with label mobile video. Show all posts
Monday, January 5, 2009
Monday, June 9, 2008
TV Anytime & Anywhere
Over the past nine months or so I have been involved on a national committee looking at systems for providing video programming to mobile and hand held devices. Representatives from the major broadcast groups and other industry leaders have been examining how the new digital broadcast system can be used for more applications than only that new HD TV set in the family room.
You would have to be living on a deserted island not to be aware that the world of communications has gone mobile. More and more young people don’t even have a hard- wired phone line, choosing instead the flexibility and convenience of the cell phone. The Black Berry®, or one of the myriad of similar portable communication/assistant devices, has replaced the red “power tie” in corporate conference rooms large and small. So it is only logical that TV programming too will migrate to an untethered universe.
There are already some nascent video services being provided for viewing on cell phones. Verizon® and others offer expanded video services. So far these have only been offered in selected markets and are somewhat pricey. The main issue is that video programming is a ravenous consumer of bandwidth. As an example, if we take the bandwidth currently being used to provide only one channel of public television using UHF Channel 48 and use it for voice or data transmission, we could provide thousands of individual phone conversations and computer connections with the web. One TV program or thousands of other services. So when you send video over a cell phone network, it really can clog up the works. This means it is not very robust and it is expensive to provide.
As I have written repeatedly in this column, TV in the US has already converted to digital technology with the end of the analog TV age coming in about seven months. The group that I have been serving with is engaged in developing a system that uses part of the broadcaster’s digital signal to send video programming to mobile devices. The conversion to digital allows a more efficient use of the bandwidth.
Some examples. That back seat video screen in the mini van that now displays programs from the same old DVDs will be able to receive new live special programming aimed akids. No more “if I have to come back there” pronouncements. While our area does not have as many mass transit commuters as some of the major US cities, even here, some bus riders might enjoy watching the morning news programs while riding the Metro down I-74.
It may come as a surprise to some that the US is far behind many other countries in deploying this technology. Japan, Korea and some of the Scandinavian countries have very robust mobile networks and mobile video services. In these countries, a combination of government subsidy and consumer demand has spawned higher speed networks and lower prices.
In the US some of the mobile video services will be riding on the broadcast digital TV system and it is anticipated that much of the cost will be absorbed by advertisers. Time will tell.
The first of the mobile services are projected to launch in 2009.
You would have to be living on a deserted island not to be aware that the world of communications has gone mobile. More and more young people don’t even have a hard- wired phone line, choosing instead the flexibility and convenience of the cell phone. The Black Berry®, or one of the myriad of similar portable communication/assistant devices, has replaced the red “power tie” in corporate conference rooms large and small. So it is only logical that TV programming too will migrate to an untethered universe.
There are already some nascent video services being provided for viewing on cell phones. Verizon® and others offer expanded video services. So far these have only been offered in selected markets and are somewhat pricey. The main issue is that video programming is a ravenous consumer of bandwidth. As an example, if we take the bandwidth currently being used to provide only one channel of public television using UHF Channel 48 and use it for voice or data transmission, we could provide thousands of individual phone conversations and computer connections with the web. One TV program or thousands of other services. So when you send video over a cell phone network, it really can clog up the works. This means it is not very robust and it is expensive to provide.
As I have written repeatedly in this column, TV in the US has already converted to digital technology with the end of the analog TV age coming in about seven months. The group that I have been serving with is engaged in developing a system that uses part of the broadcaster’s digital signal to send video programming to mobile devices. The conversion to digital allows a more efficient use of the bandwidth.
Some examples. That back seat video screen in the mini van that now displays programs from the same old DVDs will be able to receive new live special programming aimed akids. No more “if I have to come back there” pronouncements. While our area does not have as many mass transit commuters as some of the major US cities, even here, some bus riders might enjoy watching the morning news programs while riding the Metro down I-74.
It may come as a surprise to some that the US is far behind many other countries in deploying this technology. Japan, Korea and some of the Scandinavian countries have very robust mobile networks and mobile video services. In these countries, a combination of government subsidy and consumer demand has spawned higher speed networks and lower prices.
In the US some of the mobile video services will be riding on the broadcast digital TV system and it is anticipated that much of the cost will be absorbed by advertisers. Time will tell.
The first of the mobile services are projected to launch in 2009.
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